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Showing posts with the label Economy

Rule of the Road - Break out Nations

1)Watch the changes in the list of top billionaires, learn how they made their billions, and note how many billions they made. This information provides a quick bellwether for balance of growth, across income class and industries. A country that produces too many billionaires, relative to its size, is in all likelihood off-balance. 2) Strong companies and stock markets should - but should not necessarily - make for strong economies, so don't confuse the two. The clearest examples are countries dominated by oligopolies, like Mexico, SA and to some extent Philippines. 3) Watch for steady momentum behind economic and political reform, particularly in good times. Nations typically implement reforms when their backs are against the wall. 4) Check the size and growth of the second city, compared to the first city. In any big country the second largest city usually has a population that is to 1/3rd to 1/2 of the biggest city. 5) Watch the locals , they are always first to know; ...

Key Learnings from Breakout Nations

All Thanks to Ruchir Sharma for his splendid book : Breakout Nations. 1) The old rule of forecasting was to make as many forecasts as possible and publicize the ones you got right. The new rule is to forecast so far into the future that no one will know that you got it wrong. 2) Goodhart's Law (Coined by former Bank of England, adviser Charles Goodhart) : Once an economic indicator get too popular, it loses its predictive value. 3) It is said that it takes money to make money, but for nations to grow rapidly it is much easier to be poor - the poorer, the better. 4) Typically it is difficult for any nation to expand the manufacturing share of its labor force much beyond 20 % , and China is already at around 23%. 5) "Low context", in contrast describes societies like United States and Germany in which people are individual oriented, care about privacy and more likely to stick to timelines and their word. Both India and Brazil are "high-context" societie...

Ten Issues -24

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1- Smokers’ Corner: Real revolutions by Nadeem F. Paracha. 2- The Night Shastri Died And Other Stories by Kuldip Nayar. 3- Why Elites Fail by Christopher Hayes. 4- The real wealth of nations - The Economist 5- Children of the Taliban - PBS Frontline 6- The wedges between productivity and median compensation growth By Lawrence Mishel 7- 'A Perfect and Beautiful Machine': What Darwin's Theory of Evolution Reveals About Artificial Intelligence by Daniel C. Dennett. 8- Why so many communist philosophers? by Santiago Zabala 9- Destroying the commons by Noam Chomsky. 10 - Theories of Oppression and Another Dialogue of Cultures by Ashis Nandy Perspectives Jonathan Haidt: The moral roots of liberals and conservatives Psychologist Jonathan Haidt studies the five moral values that form the basis of our political choices, whether we're left, right or center. In this eye-opening talk, he pinpoints the moral values that liberals and conservatives tend...

Ten Issues - 23

1- Retuning Alha Udal : The lustrous versatility of film music, and change wrought by time. Gulzar knows our culture more than anybody in music industry. 2- Evaluating responses to India's macroeconomic crisis by Shubho Roy and Ajay Shah. 3- Not an April Fool : We are encouraged to over-share, for commercial reasons (just as we are encouraged to over-consume, but that's an issue for another time). 4- वक्‍त की छलनी में चेहरे गुम हो जाते हैं, गीत अमर रहता है ♦ जावेद अख्‍तर - पिछले दिनों जावेद अख्‍तर को राष्‍ट्रपति ने राज्‍यसभा की सदस्‍यता दी। 17 मई 2012 को जावेद साहब ने संसद में अपना पहला भाषण दिया। 5- Sheryl Sandberg’s Inspiring Speech At Harvard Business School . Sandberg urged the new graduates to think of their careers as a “jungle gym,” jumping around instead of following a preordained progression. She urged her listeners to take similar leaps, perhaps accepting a job that’s a step down from what one is currently doing if it offers the chance to learn something ...

Ten Issues - 22

1- Banning middlemen from oil trade could drive down price of crude by 40% : These middlemen add little value and lots of cost as they bid up the price of oil in pursuit of financial gain. They are "pure" speculators - investors who buy and sell oil futures but never take physical possession of actual barrels of oil. 2- Daron Acemoglu on Inequality - The US, the UK and many other countries have become far less equal over the past 30 years. The MIT economics professor says it's important we understand how and why this happened, and what it means for our societies. He also review Five Books. 3- The Emperor Uncrowned - A complete reportage on the rise of Narendra Modi. 4- The new think tank by Niranjan Rajadhyaksha:- Dry intellectual pursuits such as neuroscience and auction theory are solving problems on the ground. We met four people whose models prove how. 5- December 1984 By Sathyu Sarangi : Many of the battles begun 25 years ago, in the aftermath of catast...

EPW Readings

1- Accessing Institutional Finance: A Demand Side Story for Rural India Under the Reserve Bank of India’s “financial inclusion” campaign, the provision of institutional finance has been progressing at differential rates across the country. However, when we pair administrative banking data on availability of bank branches in a state with the All India Debt and Investment Survey (2002-03) capturing both institutional and non-institutional borrowing by households, we find that states with the most access to institutional finance, or supply, are not necessarily the ones with the most demand for finance. Looking at household level data within each state we identify determinants of institutional borrowing, and some of the strongest predictors for accessing institutional finance. A number of empirical regularities emerge in terms of the importance of having assets like land for borrowing, which undermines the basic philosophy of financial inclusion. 2- Crop Insurance in India : Scope...

Ten Issues - 18

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Harvard professor Larry Lessig is one of our foremost authorities on copyright issues, with a vision for reconciling creative freedom with marketplace competition. 1- The Indian state of Bihar has long been a byword for bad governance. It was however governed particularly badly between 1990 and 2005, and has since experienced something of a ‘governance miracle’. How can we account for the 1990–2005 deterioration? Through this working paper - State Incapacity by Design: Understanding the Bihar Story , we will understand that the low state capacity is often a political choice . 2- La Grande Revolution, Encore? A comparison between France of 1787 with present USA as both had financed an overseas war with borrowed money. 3- The War Dogma : This article appears in the July issue of Agenda/Infochange for the theme on the ‘Limits of Freedom’. An insight on Dantewada and Operation Green Hunt. 4- Playing fast and loose by Pratap Bhanu Mehta : A overview of tussle on Janlokpal Bill ...

Ten Issues - 17

1- Why Zappos Offers New Hires $2,000 to Quit : The policy of providing a let-out after one week has gained worldwide attention. Columnist Keith McFarland explains why it makes sense. 2- Who Was Milton Friedman? : Keynesianism was a great reformation of economic thought. It was followed, inevitably, by a counter-reformation. A number of economists played important roles in the great revival of classical economics between 1950 and 2000, but none was as influential as Milton Friedman. 3- End Financial Control of European Governance : In developing countries and now in Europe, government debt allows creditors to exercise undue power over decision making. The Euro crisis is clear evidence that we need to break out of the economic straitjacket imposed by an over-powerful financial sector, says Susan George in an interview with Nick Buxton. 4- Who needs a bank? : Should we make banks better, or just make them redundant? Peer-to-peer currency schemes like bitcoin.org offer the possi...

Ten Issues - 14

1- How China reports the Arab world :- In a post made to his Chinese-language weblog on April 15, Ezzat Shahrour, chief correspondent for al-Jazeera Arabic in Beijing, voiced his frustration with Chinese state media reporting on the upheaval in the Arab world this year. 2- The rules of entrapment :- The noise against Tehelka after last week’s cover story was to be expected. Much more surprising was the confusion over the ethics of political baiting. 3- Haaretz prides itself on being the conscience of Israel. Does it have a future? :- by David Remnick 4- James Gosling joins Google, what can startups learn? :- Cultivating talent is not about hiring only those people who will work on assignments or wait on benches for projects that are in the sales pipeline. You also require people who are not in the thick of daily grind; those who can think up new paradigms and new ways to doing things without the pressure of how it will impact the company's next quarter's bottom-line. ...

Creating Wealth

History shows that where ethics and economics come in conflict, victory is always with economics. Vested interests have never been known to have willingly divested themselves unless there was sufficient force to compel them. ---B. R. Ambedkar 1% has been hoovering up an ever greater share of the nation's wealth. Why ? The “seeds of decay” lay in the “disparity between rich and poor” that is growing fast in the country until middle class redefine it's role. Which is much what Chomsky states : Modern "democratic" governments exist to protect their sponsors not their people. Is it really true that media has become the agency of politicians and burglars ? News channel works as ferocious disinformation machine aimed at convincing people to vote against their financial interests. James, Dresden has quoted : When a well-packaged web of lies has been sold gradually to the masses over generations, the truth will seem utterly preposterous and its speaker a raving ...

Background of the Arab Revolution

When the Rebels become the tyrants, Revolution takes on a new meaning. We can consider Libya a perfect example of that. Still, US government is backing Libyan rebels to achieve democracy and liberty in their nation while supporting Arab league authoritarian rule in Saudi, Bahrain or Yemen. Why ? Only vested interests in Saudi and hidden agenda in Libya ! As pointed by a journalist : Libyan assets are mainly in the US and Europe, and they amount to hundreds of billions of dollars: the US Treasury froze $30bn of liquid assets, and US banks $18bn. What is to happen to interest on these assets? The absence of any specific arrangement assets are turned into a booty, an interest-free loan, in this instance, to US Treasury and US banks. And the logic of western policy is permanent support for the Saudi elite and its guarantee of “stability” and "oil"in the region. Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies at Oxford University, coined the term refolution to describe the hyb...

Corruption, Agitation and Wealth Creation

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George F Will was referring to the US government but his words apply with greater force to India when he wrote, “The administration’s central activity — the political allocation of wealth and opportunity — is not merely susceptible to corruption, it is corruption.” [Tincture of Lawlessness. The Washington Post, May 2009.] Corruption: Mostly poor and partially middle class in India are victims of state indifference and corruption; The money released for subsidy and loan waiver schemes is stolen by corrupt government officials. And yet if one asks us what jobs they would like to have the number one answer is to job for the government. The very base of your very social order – and this lie includes the need for you to be clever, jugaad, and constantly try to hinder others growth. Literacy was supposed to create a level playing field for all. However, investments in education have actually widened the gap between the English-speaking classes and the vernacular masses. The same peopl...

Ten Issues - 13

1- Dark side of giving: The rise of philanthro-capitalism --- Large philanthropic resources are being utilised to further the interests of business. 2- Noam Chomsky interviewed by Ajaz Ashraf and Anuradha Raman in Outlook magazine, November 1, 2010. The man NYT called “arguably the most important intellectual alive” finds the media in Pakistan more vibrant than it is in India. 3- Elections come and go. But the immigrant issue goes on forever [PDF]: A quarter century post the Assam Accord, political parties in the state still seek votes on the issue of illegal Bangladeshi immigration, reports Tehelka Reporter Kunal Majumdar. 4- Stan Ovshinsky’s Solar Revolution : His inventions from 50 years ago enabled cell phones, laptops, and flat-screen TVs. Now, at age 88, he’s aiming to make solar power cheaper than coal. 5- Why Do Some Countries Win More Olympic Medals? Lessons for Social Mobility and Poverty Reduction :- Not everyone in our country has equal access to competitive s...

Ten Issues - 10

1- Let a thousand heretics bloom : Liberal education is a sustained and controlled matter, where practicality is directly related to searching analyses and the fecundity of thought processes. Sadly, the flag-bearers of a new India have no clue about such a pedigree of liberalism. 2- A Case of Conscience : Shiv Viswanathan writes to Manmohan Singh on the conviction of Binayak Sen. 3- Our phony economy By Jonathan Rowe : From testimony delivered March 12 before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Interstate Commerce. Rowe is codirector of West Marin Commons, a community-organizing group, in California. 4- Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 11, 1974 by Friedrich August von Hayek . The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 1974 was awarded jointly to Gunnar Myrdal and Friedrich August von Hayek "for their pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and for their penetr...

Development Management -1

The present economic model is premised on the centrality and openness of markets. But the market forces themselves are a function of economic power and control. In cases in which economic resources and opportunities are widely distributed, economic activity may best be left to individual, private initiative, and market forces, but in societies with a skewed distribution of natural resources and opportunities, a free play of market forces could marginalize an increasing proportion of people, without state intervention through reforms. Development projects are being initiated and implemented in order to fight against poverty and economic stagnation. It brings to us ethical questions of an inequitable distribution of development's benefits and losses. The principle of the "greater good for the larger numbers," routinely invoked to rationalize social disruptions like forced displacements, is, in fact, abused and turned into an unwarranted justification for tolerating ills t...

Understanding Economics - 2

Chilean Economist Manfred Max-Neef: US Is Becoming an "Underdeveloping Nation" Never in human history has there been such an accumulation of knowledge like in the last 100 years. What was that knowledge for? What did we do with it? And the point is that knowledge alone is not enough, that we understand very little. When you’re separated, you can accumulate knowledge. And that is—that’s been the function of science. Now, science is divided into parts, but understanding is holistic. And that happens with poverty. One understood poverty only by experience. And then you begin to learn that in that environment there are different values, different principles from—compared to those from where one is coming. Economists look at the poverty from the outside, instead of living it from the inside. And you learn extraordinary things. The first thing you learn, that people who want to work in order to overcome poverty and don’t know, is that in poverty there is an enormous creativ...

The Max-Neef Model of Human-Scale Development

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Manfred Max-Neef is a Chilean economist who has worked for many years with the problem of development in the Third World, articulating the inappropriateness of conventional models of development, that have lead to increasing poverty, massive debt and ecological disaster for many Third World communities. He works for the Centre for Development Alternatives in Chile, an organisation dedicated to the reorientation of development which stimulates local needs. It researches new tools, strategies and evaluative techniques to support such development, and Max-Neef's publication Human Scale Development: an Option for the Future (1987) outlines the results of the Centre’s researches and experiences Max-Neef and his colleagues have developed a taxonomy of human needs and a process by which communities can identify their "wealths" and "poverties" according to how these needs are satisfied. Human Scale Development is defined as "focused and based on the satisfactio...

Development is Uneven, Get Over It

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Adapted from the blog post of William Easterly This a 20 minute extemporaneous talk at UNICEF headquarters in New York on the topic of “Inclusive Growth”. After the talk, there is a question, comment, and response session with the audience.  The full video is an hour, if you are really a masochist. (Try this link if the video player above doesn’t work.) To summarize the talk: success is intrinsically uneven, so development and growth is intrinsically uneven, not “inclusive”. (See the earlier post about the fractal stubborness of uneven geographic wealth .) In this talk, I also mention how remarkably uneven success shows up in just about every field of endeavor. One way this shows up is in a “power law”: there is such a strong negative relationship between the frequency of success and the scale of success that we have to use a logarithmic scale (i.e. a scale where every unit increase means multiplying by 10)  for both to be able to...

The Bigger Picture

We need role models who can bravely give voice to what people had been wishing- but not daring to say for many a year. My intention Is not so much to ‘assess' the society and civilization in few words, but to understand what the our traditions might mean concretely to its protagonists. If you don’t know the why, you can forget about figuring out the how. A true questioning spirit is usually introspective in nature, not accusatory. Verified doubt is scientific and it lays the foundation for merit-based trust. The advantage of a questioning spirit is that it is the opposite of an inquisition. Huge majority of society have internalized the myth that the authority is capable — and willing — to solve to problem of poverty. This is one of the greatest binding assumptions that imprisons the development. To become free from this notion is hard because it is in the interest of those in authority and few in power to perpetuate these false beliefs. People, an individual changes the world f...

Governing India

Atanu Dey holds nerve of this country and analyze correctly about hurdles in the path of development of this country. In his article : The Perverse “Right to Information” , he pointed that information should be routinely available rather than being exceptionally provided. All information of public interest should be available to the public as the default. No special effort should be necessary for a citizen to know what the government is doing with his or her money. It is time we stopped congratulating ourselves about how wonderful the RTI is and started realizing that we have degraded ourselves to the point where we are actually grateful for the few scraps of information that is thrown our way in response to considerable groveling in front of those whose salaries we pay. Atanu Dey continue further his roar in the article: "What Holds India Back " , that the Indian government is the greatest barrier to India’s development. To summarize: Control of the economy does tw...